2023 Journal Articles

– Immigrants and natives’ financial decision making: Evidence from Türkiye

Abdullah Selim ÖZTEK, Yaşar Ersan, Güzhan Gülay

Abstract: This study investigates the causal effects of Syrian migrants on the financial behavior of natives in Türkiye. Utilizing a comprehensive administrative data set, we employ a two-stage least square (2SLS) estimation technique that isolates causal effects by exploiting substantial exogenous variation in the share of migrants relative to natives, arising from the geographical proximity to Syrian governorates of a specific province. Results indicate that immigrants have no significant overall effects on the financial decisions of natives. We find no conclusive evidence that migrant influx promotes overall stock market participation at both extensive and intensive margins. Moreover, our investigation reveals a minimal variation in direct stock ownership or the wealth invested in stocks. We observe neither economically nor statistically significant effects on the share of natives holding bonds or funds. Additionally, no discernible impact of migrants on the wealth per capita invested in bonds, funds, and the overall stock market emerges. However, we find limited evidence suggesting that migrants contribute to an increase in the share of wealth invested in stocks, albeit with a corresponding decrease in the share of wealth allocated to funds. Lastly, we explore the heterogeneity in the effects of immigrants by gender, but our findings reveal no significant variation by gender.

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2022 Journal Articles

– Effect of Syrian Refugees on Native Family Formation: Marriage and Divorce Trends in Turkey

Abdullah Selim ÖZTEK

Abstract: After the civil war in Syria, Turkey faced a massive refugee wave, making Turkey the top refugee-hosting country in the world. Besides the economic burden of this refugee population, various field surveys reveal that Turkish citizens have some negative perceptions about the refugees. One of the leading concerns on refugees is their possible effects on native family formation by affecting marriage and divorce rates. This study examines the effect of the Syrian refugees on family formation by comparing the trends in different geographical areas of Turkey. While border cities and relatively developed cities host a significant number of Syrians, there are few Syrians living in cities away from the border. By conducting spatial analysis, the study checks whether there is a change in divorce/marriage rates in cities with a high concentration of refugees compared to cities with fewer refugees. By considering the endogenous location choice of the refugees, the study proposes a distance-based instrument to overcome the endogeneity problem in a Difference-in-Differences setting. Results indicate that the refugees do not affect the existing trends in divorce rates and divorce cases. However, there is a limited adverse impact on official marriages. A 1% increase in the refugee ratio corresponds to a 0.03% reduction in official marriages.

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2021 Journal Articles

– Refugees and the Informal Labour Market: Evidence from Syrian Inflows to Turkey

Abdullah Selim ÖZTEK

Abstract: The paper analyses the labour market effects of the Syrian refugees on Turkish natives. Results suggest that there are no negative effects on native employment, but there is a compositional change in the labour market. On the contrary, there is evidence for positive effects on formal employment which is confirmed by the administrative data. By gender, results are differentiated in a systematic way. For men, while there is an increase in formal employment, informal employment decreases. Results are the opposite for women. There is a reduction in formal employment but no significant change in informal female employment. Theseresults suggest that while refugees are substitutes for women in the formal market and men in the informal market, they are complements to formal male workers.

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